Match result reported across major outlets
News · Reuters, AP, ESPN
High impact
News 'Spain crowned 2026 FIFA World Cup Champions.' on July 19, 2026, directly caused Spain's probability to surge to 99.9%.
Reuters · 19 Jul 2026 21:47 UTC
VegaIntel
Why did this market move?
VegaIntel investigates a Polymarket price move — whale trades, volume spikes, thin liquidity, breaking news — and writes a cited explanation with a confidence score. Then, two days later, it checks its own homework.
Private beta. No credit card, ever. We'll email your invite.
Already invited? Sign in →
Evidence, not prophecy. See a live analysis run →
How it works
Four sequential steps, run on every request
A full analysis takes 60–120 seconds because it genuinely does this much work — nothing here is a canned template.
- 01
Retrieving market data
Pulls the event and every one of its markets straight from Polymarket — no stale cache.
Fetching the event and its markets from Polymarket
- 02
Detecting signals
A deterministic Go engine flags whale-sized trades, order-book skew and volume anomalies. No model runs yet.
Whale trades, order-book skew, volume anomalies
- 03
Gathering news
Searches for dated, citable news on the real-world subject the market tracks.
Searching for dated, citable news on the subject
- 04
Reasoning
Weighs the evidence and writes a causal explanation — with a confidence score capped at 90%, on principle.
Synthesising a causal explanation from the evidence
A real explanation, not a mockup
Read a full report
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
External news
Spain's implied probability surged to 99.9% within minutes of the final whistle. The move is fully explained by the match result itself, reported near-simultaneously by every major outlet — not by unusual order flow beforehand.
ConfidenceHigh90%
Three independent items agree on timing and directioncap 90%
No abnormal order flow ahead of the result
Order flow
Low impact
Trade volume in the two hours before full time was in line with the market's recent median — this was not front-run.
Polymarket trade log · 19 Jul 2026 19:30–21:45 UTC
Independent live-blog corroboration
The Athletic
PrimarySupports
Minute-by-minute coverage confirms the same final score and timestamp used above.
The Athletic · 19 Jul 2026 21:48 UTC
Run against a live World Cup market, July 2026 — see UI_PRD Appendix B. This one isn't hypothetical.
The differentiator
The accuracy record
Every explanation is scored automatically 48 hours later against what the market actually did. Confidence is adjusted per outcome — including when we're wrong. That record will be published here, in full, broken down by cause type. No cherry-picking.
Collecting data
A calibration curve needs a meaningful sample of scored reports before it means anything — showing one too early would mislead rather than inform. This container is built and wired; it fills in as reports clear their 48-hour re-check.
What this is not
Research tooling, not a trading signal
Research only. This explains what has already happened in a market. It is not a prediction, not a recommendation, and not financial advice. VegaIntel is wrong some of the time — the 48-hour re-check is how you find out when.
VegaIntel never tells you what to bet, never places a trade, and never shows a modelled probability against the market price. It explains evidence behind a move that already happened. Verify every cited source yourself before acting on anything you read here.
Pricing
Usage credits, with a real free tier
Every analysis costs real money to run — model reasoning plus grounded news search — so pricing tracks usage rather than a flat fee. No credit card at sign-up, ever.
Free
5 / month
Enough to point VegaIntel at markets you actually care about and judge it on real output.
Pro
TBD
A larger monthly allowance, with overage sold in packs. Priced once real cost-per-analysis is measured.
API
TBD
Metered access for quant and trading-tool builders. Structured, scored, cited explanations — no UI required.
Beta users are grandfathered into their free-tier access. That's a promise we intend to keep publicly.
Get on the list
5–10 invites are going out during the private beta. We'll email you the moment yours is ready.